Tremont Coop Grain Commentary

Tuesday, October 16th

7:59 AM

Current market: corn down 3, beans down 8

The recent selloff in Asian markets seemed to recover in the overnight with most of the major indices trading higher in overnight markets. However, story out that Chinese governments may have a larger-than-anticipated debt problem with provincial governments accumulating some $5.8 TRILLION dollars of off-balance sheet debt. European leaders are skeptical of getting a Brexit deal done this week. The UK economy continued to show unemployment at decades-low 4 percent. European markets are higher at midday. US equities are pointing towards a higher open despite turmoil with the Saudi journalist disappearing in the Saudi embassy in Turkey last week.

Overnight markets weaker after last few days' run-up in prices. Slow week of harvest progress with a wet last week has the corn crop at 39% harvested (up 5% from the previous week) and soybeans at 38% (up 6%); Illinois' harvest estimated at 71% done on corn, 60% done on soybeans. National soybean harvest pace being slower than average has helped buoy the market, and coupled with the unexpected drop in soybean planted and harvested acres that only raised carryout 40 mbu (due to last year's drop in demand) in the October report, bean prices had a good run above a key technical barrier and saw some cargoes loaded for China last week.

Corn export sales are running 150% of what they were last year at this time. The October WASDE report has corn exports at a robust 2.475 bbu, which would be another record. The soybean to-date export sales are running at only 82% of last year's volume at this time, but still look to be on pace for a 2+ bbu export year, especially with the Chinese business showing up last week.

 

AG


 

Disclaimer: This commentary does not represent the views of Tremont Cooperative Grain Company, but rather one author's opinions. Data used in this commentary is taken from sources believed to be accurate, and is intended for informational purposes only and should not be solely used to conduct any type of trading strategy. For more information, please contact Tremont Cooperative Grain Company at 309-925-4981, or email info@tremont.coop.

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