With a market cap of $4.75 billion, Archer Aviation (ACHR) is an under-the-radar aerospace company poised to take off soon. 

Archer Aviation is developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft with the goal of transforming urban air mobility. The company ended 2024 with its strongest ever cash position and significant progress in manufacturing, certification, and commercial readiness. Plus, savvy investors including Cathie Wood, who is known for her focus on disruptive innovation, have recognized Archer's long-term potential. The stock accounts for 2.7% of Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK).

Archer is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on May 12. Archer stock is down 9.4% year to date, while the broader market has fallen 3.1%. Nonetheless, Wall Street forecasts the stock to soar around 50% from current levels. Let’s find out if the stock is a buy now.

Archer’s flagship model is the Midnight, which is designed for dense urban environments, using a combination of electric propulsion and advanced AI-powered flight software. It is meant specifically for short-distance flights, providing a sustainable and efficient alternative to ground transportation. The company envisions a future in which air taxis alleviate urban congestion while lowering carbon emissions. As of now, Archer has not generated revenue from commercial operations. Hence, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) losses totaled $368.9 million in 2024. However, with the launch of Midnight, Archer is now actively preparing for revenue-generating operations in late 2025.

The company remains committed to obtaining certification from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the gold standard for global aviation regulation. However, Archer has also been pursuing a dual-path commercialization strategy. For instance, in Q4, the company began deploying Midnight aircraft outside of the U.S., primarily in countries that do not require FAA type certification, such as the UAE. This track is supported by a new partnership with Abu Dhabi Aviation. These aircraft will be certified locally, allowing Archer to begin operations and generate revenue while FAA certification is processed. Partnerships with regional powerhouses such as Etihad for pilot training and Falcon Aviation for infrastructure development help to solidify the foundation for a scalable model in the UAE and beyond.

On the domestic front, Archer is collaborating with United Airlines (UAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) to establish urban air mobility services. Archer has also collaborated with Palantir Technologies (PLTR) to leverage its Foundry and Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) to “accelerate the scaling of its aircraft manufacturing capabilities.”

What’s impressive is Archer’s expansion into defense via a partnership with Anduril, a tech-driven defense innovator. Their collaborative development of a next-generation hybrid propulsion vertical lift aircraft for both military and civilian applications could potentially unlock multibillion-dollar defense programs that do not require FAA certification. 

During the earnings call, management provided an update on the Midnight, stating that it is fully assembled and is currently undergoing final ground tests at Archer’s Salinas, California test facility. Furthermore, the company’s new Georgia manufacturing facility is now complete and will produce up to 10 Midnight aircraft this year. The company expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $95 million to $110 million in the first quarter of 2025, owing to ongoing investment in engineering, production, and commercialization.

Archer ended 2024 with $835 million in cash and cash equivalents, resulting in a liquidity position of more than $1 billion. This was largely enabled by successful equity raises in 2024 that raised $820.4 million. Management also stated that the company’s liquidity does not yet include Stellantis’ (STLA) potential $400 million capital commitment to support scaling up production of the Midnight aircraft. Archer expects to finalize this agreement in the first quarter.

Analysts who cover the stock predict that the company’s revenue will be around $28.1 million in 2025 before rising by 404.9% to $142 million in 2026. These strong revenue estimates point to a path to profitability, assuming successful commercialization and scaling of operations.

Is Archer Aviation Stock a Buy on Wall Street?

Recently, Canaccord Genuity analyst Austin Moeller reiterated a “Buy” rating for the stock, citing the company’s strategic momentum and innovative edge. Archer’s recent unveiling of its Midnight eVTOL aircraft, as well as its ambitious plans for a New York Air Taxi Network, demonstrate a forward-thinking approach to urban mobility. Moeller also cited Archer’s collaboration with aviation industry leaders and the aircraft’s low noise profile as key factors in regulatory approval and public acceptance. These developments strengthen Moeller’s belief in Archer’s long-term growth prospects.

Overall, Archer Aviation stock is a “Moderate Buy” on Wall Street. Of the nine analysts covering the stock, five rate it a “Strong Buy,” two say it is a “Moderate Buy,” and two rate it a “Hold.” The average target price of $11.39 is 32% above current levels. Plus, its Street-high estimate of $13.5 suggests the stock can rally around 56% over the next 12 months. 

With a strong capital base, expanding international partnerships, and advanced manufacturing capabilities, Archer appears to be well-positioned to lead the next era of urban air mobility. Investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term outlook may wish to begin with a small stake in the company. 

For risk-averse investors, Archer Aviation is a top stock to closely monitor as the company transitions from development to commercial operations in the second half of 2025.